John Behan at Commonwealth Conservative has this post on the latest Rasmussen poll on the Virginia Governor's race. According to the poll, Jerry Kilgore currently leads Tim Kaine 46%-40%. However, even ignoring the poll's somewhat high 4.5% margin of error, the poll has one critical flaw: the questions asked of respondents excluded any mention of "independent Republican" candidate Russ Potts.
John doesn't think the exclusion of Potts' name really affects the poll, but I disagree. I do agree with John that Potts will get no more than 5% of the vote on Election Day, but we have no way to tell how the poll would have been impacted if Potts' name had been included. Many responses to poll questions are predicated specifically on the choices respondents are given, so the poll's outcome may change significantly if Potts' name is included.
Most of us believe Potts' true role in this race is as a spoiler. But without accurate polling, it's difficult to know whose chances he's going to spoil.
