Tuesday, June 21, 2005

HD13 - Roemmelt v. Marshall

Bob Marshall is perennially known as one of the most conservative legislators in the House, taking on such universally important issues as whether adults on college campuses should have access to legal contraceptives. Marshall's opposition comes in the character of Bruce Roemmelt, a retired Prince William County firefighter.

Marshall has two factors going for him. First, he's a conservative Republican in a conservative district. Second, Marshall has taken on an issue that has put him at odds with many traditional Republicans: growth and development. Marshall continues to fight for growth controls such as impact fees and adequate public facilities ordinances, making him a darling of many slow-growthers, even those who can't stomach his views on abortion and birth control. He also fought a Wal-Mart in his district, making him something of a local hero. Both religious conservatives and slow-growthers are what we call "true believers," which means Marshall can usually count on his people to turn out and vote for him if they think he's threatened.

Our sources tell us that Marshall has largely been a no-show so far, although his campaign finance reports show the frugal legislator has spent more than $25,000 of his campaign funds since January. Roemmelt spent a paltry $11,000 in the same period. Roemmelt has managed to outraise Marshall for the year, even ignoring the fact that Roemmelt has jacked up his in-kind contributions to puff up his totals. Most of Roemmelt's big money has come from local chapters of the International Association of Fire Fighters union, which doesn't give me a lot of hope that the cash will continue into the Fall. The One Virginia PAC has gone in for $5,000, but Hilda Barg and Greg Werkheiser have already gotten $15,000.

Where Marshall could be in trouble is if he doesn't take Roemmelt seriously. Roemmelt has a chance to pull the slow-growthers away from Marshall since many of them are not religious conservatives. Roemmelt doesn't appear poised to do this right now, since his web site is loaded with back-slapping blog entries from his supporters and does not contain any sort of platform that we could locate. The biggest news there seems to be that Roemmelt's field director had the guts to knock on Marshall's door despite the presence of a "No Trespassing" sign (great job, guys, did you nab his lawn ornaments too?). This makes Roemmelt's presence on the Internet only slightly better than Marshall's, who doesn't have a web site at all. But who needs a web site when all you have to do to win an election is let everyone at church know you need them to go vote?

Not Larry Sabato has already chalked this up as a Bob Marshall victory, and I'm inclined to agree. But living in a conservative district does not guarantee you a victory, especially if your opponent succeeds in identifying moderate voters and turning them out. Our sources tell us the Roemmelt campaign has so far been too disorganized to accomplish this.

UPDATE: The Roemmelt folks just directed me to an archived version of Marshall's web site here. Marshall's site was originally hosted by a religious charity, and we had been unable to find it once the guys over at Raising Kaine got it taken down. Roemmelt clearly wins the war of the web, but Howard Dean will still tell you no one ever won a race relying on a web site.