Not Larry Sabato has continued his "toss-up" rating for the 41st district, where Michael Golden and David Marsden are vying for the chance to replace retiring Delegate Jim Dillard. Golden recently crushed fellow Republican Bill Finerfrock in the GOP primary, and some political hacks have taken his strong showing as an indication that Golden is a political powerhouse. I'm not sure that's the case.
NLS' rating of this race as a toss-up seems to focus more on the Dems' inability to coalesce around their own candidate, former longtime Republican and Dillard aide David Marsden. Marsden, rumor has it, decided to cut and run as a Democrat when it became clear to him that winning the GOP nomination would be difficult, if not impossible. We think it makes better sense for Marsden to run as a Dem if he hopes to capture Dillard's base. Let's be honest, there aren't many hard-core conservative Republicans who are also Dillard fans.
I too have heard a lot of complaining about Marsden from fellow Dems. The carping has led a couple of Dem party-line blogs to ask why the GOP is so much more comfortable accepting turncoats from the other party than the Dems are. The question is, will this really matter in November? With three statewide races to draw voters to the polls in ever bluer Northern Virginia, the Dems begin with an advantage since the GOP doesn't have a statewide candidate from Northern Virginia. Who really thinks all the Dems who show up to the polls will really pick Golden over Marsden?
I'm going to give Marsden a slight edge in this race. He's an old hand with plenty of experience and enormous support from Dillard, his former straight-talking boss. That edge could be erased in this district that gave President Bush the edge in 2004 if Marsden can't get past his past.
