Not Jack's Stunning Reversal

I heard some news today that ought to make the Albo people rejoice - seems everyone's internal polling shows Albo up by a minimum of 4 points over Werkheiser. From what I'm told, Werkheiser's problem is the turnout factor. Right now, modeling is predicting that turnout will be very low, which will likely favor Republicans, incumbents and those who otherwise have a loyal following. Albo is a Republican, an incumbent, and has a loyal following that has not abandoned him - as evidenced by the huge fundraiser he had last night in Tysons Corner. From what I hear, it was a Republican sweep, with everyone there from Tom Davis to George Allen to my own namesake.

I figure maybe I'll admit I'm wrong early on so the Blogosphere will go easy on me. I am now predicting Albo will win 53-47.

Maybe the Blogosphere will go easy on me for being wrong since I admitted my mistake early.

Yeah, right.

Hello? Is This Thing On?

Sorry for my little hiatus....screwed up my password and had to get to the reclusive Rozie to get me back in....updates to follow.

NJH

Sue me baby, sue me!

Looks like the angry little man is at it again. This time he has filed a FEDERAL lawsuit against the REAL Larry Sabato.

As he continues his march to the sea scorched earth campaign, Potts shows that all cares about is getting his way. He knew the rules. He knew them from the beginning. He also knew the unwritten rules of politics. When you abandon your party, they will abandon you. No amount of kitchen utensil choir chanting will change that.

Careening Craddock

I have to give Not Larry Sabato props for unearthing the official (or unofficial) Chris Craddock slam site.

Since I mauled Greg Werkheiser for it, Craddock's tickets are not going to get by this salty old blogger either.

Looks like Craddock has racked up 6 tickets in 5 separate instances since 2001. Not the stellar record of Mr. Werkheiser, which reportedly includes 11 tickets, but still very damning.

What I find especially interesting is the fact that Mr. Craddock could not seem to get his vehicle registration in order for a very long time (3 tickets in 6 months) and that he failed to appear for traffic court on two separate occasions (he was convicted in absentia). I might be a stickler, but I think the guy who is elected to represent the people ought to at least have enough respect for the law to show up or pay his ticket on time. That even goes for parking tickets.

The NRA Does Strange Things...

I'm guessing NRA membership cards must going in trash cans across this great Commonwealth this morning over the endorsement of Democrat Creigh Deeds for Virginia's Attorney General.

I think the NRA really stepped in it this time. Deeds is a pretty weak candidate and is going to lose. Now they'll have to deal with an unfriendly Attorney General who is not beholden to them in the least. They probably should have done the "no endorsement" thing here.

Still, this means Bob McDonnell will have to work harder, since the NRA does have a loyal cadre of voters who will cast whatever ballot the NRA tells them to cast.

Waldo's Watts Update

Waldo actually got a copy of the Watts flier in question. He makes some good points.

My only question is, if the flier is supposedly anti-immigrant, why are so many of the faces decidedly NOT white guys? Mikey, I think you've stepped in it my friend.

I will hereby stop beating this horse. It is dead.

Does Michael Meunier Know Where He Lives?

There is an interesting Washington Post article on the accusation trading by Michael Meunier and Vivian Watts in the 39th. Vivian, a politician I've never underestimated (although I have fallen asleep during a couple of her marathon speeches) seems to have gotten the upper hand here.

You already know from yesterday that Meunier is leveling a charge of racism at Watts that is tenuous at best. Now, Watts has obtained a document Meunier filed in Prince George's County (that's Maryland for the geographically-challenged). The document certified that Meunier's home in PG would be his primary residence. Particularly damaging to Meunier is his surprisingly candid response to Watts' allegation:

"After reviewing the documents, Meunier confirmed that he had refinanced his home in Maryland but said that at the time late last year, he was seriously considering moving into that home permanently."

Seriously considering? The affidavit he signed says that home will be your primary residence. Not that you are "seriously considering" moving.

Besides the obvious fact that Meunier "misled" Prince George's County officials on this document, does anyone else question Meunier's commitment to Virginia if he was "seriously considering" a move to the other side of the River? This makes me seriously question Meunier's honesty and his commitment to Virginia. There are many things Vivian Watts and I disagree on, but I do not question her commitment to our Commonwealth.

This document has the power to halt any forward momentum Meunier had. Watts has this one wrapped up.

Is Vivian Watts a Racist?

Not Larry Sabato broke this little gem yesterday. I didn't post on it because I was too busy waxing poetic about Earnie Porta.

Michael Meunier is accusing Vivian Watts of being a racist. That's right, the delegate from the most diverse (and liberal) area of the state is now a racist. Apparently her mailer contained the words "One of Our Own" on the cover. Meunier says this is thinly-veiled racism. I think he gets that part wrong - technically it would be nativism since he claims it's an anti-immigrant slur.

Michael, you need a bit of education before you run next time. The picture of you campaigning on a motor scooter made you look like the class geek, and this little flap is making you look no better than the "Reverend" Al Sharpton.

Michael, "One of Our Own" is definitely a code. It's code that just about every elected official uses to let the public know that he or she has been involved in the community for several decades. To let the community know he or she is a known quantity and will not let people down. That's what "One of our Own" is code for. It's not racist, it's not nativist, it's not a slur. It's telling the voters you are a Johnny Come-Lately without real ties to the district you seek to represent.

Anyone who honestly thinks uber-liberal Vivan Watts is a racist probably has a screw loose. She's a lot of things, but not a racist. Candidates really need to quit throwing around accusations like this on a hair-trigger. It's not becoming, and it's causing a lot of otherwise spirited races to end up in the toilet.

Porta Update

James Young had this to say at Commonwealth Conservative on the issue of whether the judgment against Georgetown University in the Earnie Borda matter has been "vacated:"

"What Haru apparently refers to is a request for vacatur after an appeal was filed by Geogetown and Earnie. The motion (Clerk’s Docket No. 231) was granted by District Court Judge James Robertson, and clearly indicates that the case was settled after the jury rendered its verdict. As an experienced civil attorney, I can say that under no circumstances can this be construed as anything but confirmation of the original jury verdict. The plaintiff got something from Porta and Georgetown. "

I'm going to delve deep into my ancient law school days for the explanation. A "Motion for Vacatur" essentially means that the parties decided they were sick of paying lawyers so much money to litigate this thing and they decided to settle on their own. Vacatur is the request they make after they come to a settlement. It asks the court to set aside its judgment so the settlement can take effect. A judge has the power to either grant the motion or tell the parties they're full of it and the judgment will stand.

Say what you want. A judgment was entered in a federal court against Georgetown and Porta. Georgetown seems to have gotten slammed at every turn, and finally agreed to settle with the woman in this case after first appealing the jury's verdict. I'm guessing the details of the settlement were sealed. If they haven't, I'm sure we'll hear otherwise.

James, am I essentially correct here? Or are the cobwebs overpowering my brain?

Earnie Porta Gets Smacked

I found this tidbit on Chad Dotson's Commonwealth Conservative yesterday. Chad tells his readers he is passing it along "without comment." That's probably because the facts, taken by themselves, are pretty damaging.

A few things to note:

1. Most importantly, this is OLD NEWS. The news article and order that Chad links to are from 2002. This thing has been hanging out there for three years. Why is it just now getting traction? Is there something that happened after the fact that we don't know about.

2. Legal scholar that I am, I actually read the court order that Chad linked to. According to the court, this case presented a true-blue he-said/she-said situation. That means the jury just plain found the victim more credible than Porta.

3. Borda's involvement in the case does not appear to make him the actual harasser. Apparently his involvement stems from the fact that he, as this woman's supervisor, allowed the classic "hostile workplace environment" to flourish, took no measures to stop it, and actually retaliated against the plaintiff when she brought her concerns to his attention. For those of you who are really dense, that means he summarily fired her because she complained about feeling uncomfortable because other guys were hanging swimsuit calendars on their office walls and telling really nasty dirty jokes. These are things guys normally do, but most of us are smart enough to clean up our acts around the fairer sex.

Strangely enough, I find myself agreeing with Not Larry Sabato on this one. Borda can parse his role in this whole thing all he wants and it won't matter. If it is true that a jury of his peers found that his actions caused his employer, Georgetown University, to be liable to the plaintiff, nothing in the world will change the minds of most voters on that, except maybe if an appellate court vacates or reverses the verdict.

I should add that it is pretty durn difficult these days to get a sexual harassment case to trial, then get a majority of the jury to side with the plaintiff, and then get the court to uphold the verdict without doing something screwy. The real question is, why hasn't this been used by the GOP to tank Borda's campaign by now? I've got a GOP mole friend who tells me the reason is simple: Michele McQuigg is "annoying" and the GOP really doesn't care whether she's re-elected or not. If true, I think that's terribly short-sighted of the GOP. McQuigg may be a tad shrill at times, and she does tend to act like she's perpetually been named Queen for the Day, but she has also become Queen of Campaigning. She works very hard and she's going to keep this seat, regardless whether the Borda thing sticks.