- The 67th District is home to Ken Cuccinelli, another right-wing conservative who is a perennial high-poller for the Virginia Club for Growth axis. But a few precincts are shared with moderate Republicans Bill Mims and Jeannemarie Devolites. And Cuccinelli is not on the ballot this year, eliminating any hope for huge Cuccinelli coattails. Advantage Craddock
- The Sully Magisterial District, which overlaps much of the 67th, is a very transient area that has shown a trend toward more moderate Republicrats than in past elections. Sully elected Democrat Kathy Smith to Gary Reese's School Board seat in a small turnout special election after Reese went to the General Assembly in 2001. She won handily in 2003, a year when Sully's GOP Supervisor Mike Frey also won big. This shows some big-time vote splitting. Advantage Caputo
- Chris Craddock has proven his mettle in a hard-fought (okay, the incumbent basically abdicated) primary. He is willing to fight his way to the top, is not afraid of hard work, and has organized legions of volunteers. Kind of reminds us of Cuccinelli and Dick Black. Advantage Craddock
- Chuck Caputo has strong ties to the 67th and its surrounding communities. He's been fairly active in the community. Craddock is very young and has fewer ties. But remember all those new voters - will they really care who has been there longer? Does Caputo actually have any name ID or credibility with the new folks? Ever so slight Advantage Caputo
- Craddock says odd things in public like "Jesus brought these voters to me." He is also much more conservative than the Republicrats who are increasingly populating the 67th and who like Craddock's stance on taxes but don't care much for his injection of religion into everything. Advantage Caputo
- Caputo apparently spends the primary in Europe "recharging his batteries." Okay, so I'll admit that about three people really care if the candidate takes a well-deserved vacation. But this gives us a strong signal that Caputo is not willing to do what it takes to run an effective ground game against Craddock. Advantage Craddock
Each candidate also benefits from a level playing field since this is now an open seat, making this race the cliffhanger of the season. Chuck Caputo goes into this as a very slight razor-thin favorite. This doesn't mean we are counting Craddock out by any means. This kid works hard and he has support from what I term the True Believers, who are much more likely to show up at the polls than moderate Republicrats.
We're having a hard time making the numbers for this district crunch solidly in Craddock's direction. We're seeing blue barbarians at the gates, although we must add that Kathy Smith will not be their leader. The 42nd will be the race to watch, and the open 67th will be a close second.
Depending on what we hear out of this district in the next couple of weeks this may migrate into the Craddock category very quickly.
