While we are waiting for the State Board of Elections to catch up on who is running for what House seat, we decided to start by doing brief overviews on the statewide races to get some discussion going. I know it's still early, and we'll probably change our ratings as the campaigns gear up after Labor Day.
Bob McDonnell has the clear lead going into the AG's race. Democrat Creigh Deeds (that's "Cree" for the uninitiated) has little name recognition outside of his home base in Bath and Charlottesville, and he also didn't have the benefit of a primary campaign to get his name in lights. He also hails from a rural area, while McDonnell's roots in Hampton Roads and in Northern Virginia will help him in Virginia's more populous regions.
McDonnell will need to be cautious or he'll blow his position as front-runner. He has a tendency to think everyone is as conservative as he is, and that turns many voters off. He has been known to put his foot in his mouth for the benefit of more than one reporter - such as the sordid affair over Newport News Judge Verbena Askew, where McDonnell displayed a truly Reaganesque inability to recall whether he had ever committed sodomy. Moreover, Steve Baril has already done most of Creigh Deeds' dirty work for him, going after McDonnell over ethics and effectiveness. McDonnell is going to have to put those issues to rest very early on or it will haunt him for the duration of the campaign. He will also need to put some distance between himself and the Virginia Conservative Action PAC (VCAP), whose shrill tactics turn off most voters.
Despite McDonnell's negatives, I think I'm safe in saying Deeds hasn't got much of a chance. McDonnell is extremely likable, looks you in the eye when he talks to you, and doesn't seem at all like the two-headed dragon the press presents as the Real Bob McDonnell. Deeds, on the other hand, is more reticent, known by most as a true Virginia Gentleman. As a member of the minority party, Deeds has little to show for his recent time in the General Assembly, while McDonnell seems to have had a hand in every major piece of legislation - good or bad - since the Allen administration.
Conclusion: The position of Attorney General has been squarely in the hands of the GOP since George Allen beat Mary Sue Terry, and I don't see a change coming this November.
