WSLS-TV in Roanoke has conducted an exclusive poll showing gubernatorial hopeful Jerry Kilgore subsatantially ahead of opponent Tim Kaine 49%-39%. This poll is a bit more reliable than previous polls for two reasons:
1. It includes only likely voters, rather than all registered voters.
2. It includes Russ Potts by name.
The poll reports that Kilgore is ahead in all regions of Virginia, with the notable exception of Northern Virginia (naturally). It also gives Potts' numbers as 5%, which is where John Behan and I both believe he will end up in November.
The one concern I have about this poll is that the margin of error is rather high at +/- 4.5%. I prefer to see the margin at +/-3 or lower. Despite the high margin, Kilgore retains a decisive lead.
This shows what many hacks have been saying for a while: Potts seems to be pulling his support from those who can't stomach Kaine. It also shows us that we may have been wrong about the impact of Debategate - so far, Kilgore hasn't taken a beating from it at all.
It's still early, so this whole thing is still academic. But this can't be good news for the Kaine camp.
