The Virginian-Pilot made this odd claim today on its editorial page. But the claim appears to be backed up by the latest Mason-Dixon poll, the same one that showed Tim Kaine ahead of Jerry Kilgore in the Governor's race for the first time.
Based on the results of the June 14 primary, the tax hike is clearly not in the forefront of most Virginians' minds. Its effects are barely perceptible to anyone who hasn't made a large-ticket purchase or gotten socked with the new real estate titling tax. But we're not prepared to accept the 2 to 1 figure of the Mason Dixon poll, and we're not prepared to say that a majority of Virginians are "okay" with the tax hike after two years of large surpluses.
What we do think is common-sense is this paragraph:
Voters are less interested in hot-button topics such as the death penalty,
gun laws and gay adoption than in more fundamental matters: education, state
spending, transportation and jobs, in that order. The candidates should tailor
their advertising and their themes accordingly.
The hot-button issues that Kilgore has been spending most of his time on are not, by themselves, going to win him this election. Kaine may be smart to steer clear of those issues, such as the gay adoption issue that I've written about here. Those hot-button issues may win a candidate votes of the True Believers, but they won't win over the Great Unwashed, as we in the hack community refer to the huge numbers of perennially undecided voters whose ballots ultimately decide who gets to rule.
Kilgore and Kaine both need to win over the Great Unwashed while, at the same time, playing enough to the True Believers so they don't stay home. Whichever candidate can play that juggling act the best will win the election.
